If Sebastian Vettel were to secure his third world title
this weekend, it would be, in a way, poetic. Formula One’s return to the United
States at the all-new Austin-based Circuit of the Americas will mark the German’s
100th start; his first start, as a replacement for the injured
Robert Kubica at BMW Sauber, co-incided with F1’s last trip to America in 2007
at Indianapolis.
My previous post went into great detail about F1’s previous
attempts at establishing itself in America, so I won’t go over that again. What
I shall re-iterate however is that, despite the fact that COTA will be the
tenth US venue that the sport will have visited, it is the first that has been
built specifically for the purpose. But, as McLaren team principal recently
reminded us, F1 needs America more than America needs F1. Motorsport, or ‘auto
racing’ as the Yanks like to refer it to as, generally equates to NASCAR, or less
commonly IndyCar, in this part of the world.
F1 faces the initial challenge of competing for TV viewers
with the NASCAR Sprint Cup finale at Homestead this weekend – perhaps not the
most astute piece of scheduling the sport has seen. Beyond that, it will be an
uphill struggle to convince the US public of the merits of F1 with no American
driver on the grid to speak of (Caterham tester Alexander Rossi will
unfortunately not be participating in practice) and the perception of being ‘European’.
Still, football (the association kind, that is) has made significant inroads as
of late into the American sporting consciousness despite having a similar
reputation, so perhaps there is hope yet.
The track itself, another Hermann Tilke design, of course,
has seemingly already recieved rave reviews from the F1 fraternity. Just one
cursory glance at the layout suggests some obvious overtaking spots; most
notably the first corner, with its steeply inclined approach and blind apex,
and turns 11 and 12, which bookend the long back straight where the DRS zone is
to be found. COTA appears to have something of a split personality, with the
fast sweepers largely located in the first half and the slow-speed technical corners
later in the lap.
That should mean that all aspects of the car are likely to
be challenged, from front-end grip through the fast corners, solid traction out
of the slow corners and plenty of top-end for the back straight. Tyre wear
perhaps won’t feature too prominently in this penultimate encounter of the
season, as Pirelli have opted to bring the medium and hard tyres to the event.
With rain showers provisionally forecast for Sunday however, they may not be
needed.
Such a prediction would come as music to the ears of
Fernando Alonso. The Spaniard trails Vettel by ten points in the standings, and
thus needs to finish at least fourth – assuming the Red Bull driver takes the
win – to ensure the title fight goes to Interlagos. Despite recent
modifications to the Ferrari, largely centered upon subtle alterations to the
front and rear wings, there is little to suggest that the Scuderia is going to
be able to get their F2012 on a par with the Red Bull before the year is out.
Rain at Austin or Sao Paulo (or indeed both) is thus likely
to be Alonso’s best hope of wresting the title away from Vettel, especially
when you consider his superiority in wet conditions during the Malaysian GP and
during qualifying at Silverstone and Nurburgring. Realistically, Alonso has to
reduce Vettel’s advantage by four points in order to be able to head for Brazil
knowing that the win will be enough to take home the silverware come what may.
Red Bull has openly stated their intention to try and snatch
the drivers’ title this weekend in light of the reputation of the Interlagos
track to throw a curveball – Vettel need only ask Alonso’s teammate Felipe
Massa when it comes to the business of losing the title at the last possible
second. Assuming it remains dry, Vettel has to be favourite to win this weekend
off the back of four successive wins followed by a miraculous recovery drive
from a pit-lane start to the final step of the podium last time at Abu Dhabi. If
Alonso fails to score, Vettel has to ensure he finishes at least third to put
away that third title.
Should Vettel take the chequered flag, the F1 officials
would be well advised to begin etching ‘Sebastian’ into the drivers’ trophy. As
for the constructors’, Red Bull’s healthy lead of 82 points means that just one
of Vettel and Mark Webber needs to breach the top eight this weekend in order
to score the necessary four points that would put the Milton Keynes outfit out
of reach of Ferrari. Even if they can’t manage this, Maranello would still need
one-two finishes at Austin and Interlagos to have any chance of securing an
extremely unlikely seventeenth constructors’ crown.
McLaren have already been ruled out of that particular
fight, but that’s not to say that they won’t be pushing for victory this
weekend: lest we forget, a certain Lewis Hamilton was on course for a
comfortable fourth win of the season before mechanical gremlins robbed the
Briton. Austin appears to be not dissimilar to Abu Dhabi nature – slightly more
flowing at the start and slightly less technical at the end – so expect
Hamilton to be right in the mix. Jenson Button meanwhile appears to have had
some difficulty getting on terms with his soon-to-depart teammate, but his race
pace at the last two rounds has been solid.
It will be fascinating to see whether Kimi Raikkonen can
build on his breakthrough victory at Abu Dhabi meanwhile, as the Koanda-effect
exhaust upgrades finally seemed to bear fruit for the Lotus team. Also worth
keeping an eye on are Sergio Perez and Pastor Maldonado, both of whom can
expect support from visiting home fans from Mexico and Venezuela respectively.
The hard tyre often sees the Sauber go well, whilst the final section of COTA
looks well suited to the Williams.
Qualifying Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Webber, 4. Alonso, 5. Button, 6.
Raikkonen, 7. Massa, 8. Maldonado, 9. Grosjean, 10. Rosberg
Race Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Alonso, 4. Raikkonen, 5. Button,
6. Massa, 7. Perez, 8. Maldonado, 9. Hulkenberg, 10. Senna
After his Abu Dhabi performance, it doesn’t require too much
imagination to picture Hamilton on pole position and thus on course for that
elusive fourth win barring more mechnical pitfalls. Vettel will push the
McLaren driver all the way but ultimately just falling short, whilst third will
be sufficient for Alonso to see the title head to Brazil. Raikkonen will beat
Button home to fourth position, with the dependable (as of late) Massa taking
sixth. Perez will rise from a mediocre grid slot to score healthy points with
the help of the hard tyre, just ahead of his fellow Latino Maldonado.
Hulkenberg and Senna will round out the points-scorers, whilst it’s high time
Webber experienced a share of Red Bull’s reliability problems.
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