What a year it's been for Formula One. The sport's longest ever season was full of thrilling races, monumental shunts, knife-edge overtaking, unpredictability, shock driver market news, fierce competition at both ends of the pit-lane and some highly quotable radio messages to top it all off. How to sum it all up?
I'll start by saying that, in my humble opinion, Fernando Alonso would have made a more fitting champion than Sebastian Vettel. Considering that the Ferrari was (at least in the dry) often the third, fourth or even fifth best package on the grid, the sheer amount of points Alonso was able to squeeze out of the F2012 is testament to his incredible determination, consistency, focus and sheer ability. Every opportunity was seized, and it's difficult to see how he could have done more. Two titles fail to do justice to the Spaniard's talent - indeed, 2012 has been the third time in five years Alonso has missed out on glory by a whisker. If Ferrari are able to produce even a marginally better car in 2013, then Fernando will be a major threat.
That's not to detract from Vettel's achievements this year, and it's clear that his partnership with Adrian Newey has the potential to rival the fearsome Schumacher-Brawn axis of a decade ago. It took him some time to get over the early hiccups of losing the exhaust-blown diffuser, but the margin of superiority he established over teammate Mark Webber in the latter part of the year speaks volumes. I can foresee Vettel becoming a five, six or even seven-time champion in the future, although it will be fascinating to see whether they all come courtesy of Red Bull or if the 25-year-old from Heppenheim decides to jump ship.
If the rumours are to be believed, that could be as soon as 2014. Ferrari have made no secret of how much they admire Vettel, but would Alonso really tolerate somebody as likely to deflect the team's attention away from himself as the sport's newest triple champion? Vettel on the other hand may be keen to put to bed for all time the perception that his success up to now has been down to the car, and that Alonso is still the best in the business given equal machinery. Such a move reportedly hinges on Red Bull failing to retain works engines in 2014, which seems highly unlikely, so don't hold your breath for a repeat of Senna-Prost.
Alonso, six years Vettel's senior, does not have time on his side to the same extent as his rival when it comes to the business of racking up more titles. What's more, he's likely to see out his career with the Prancing Horse (he's under contract until the end of 2016), which means he's at the mercy of Maranello's abilities to produce the goods. A move elsewhere can't be ruled out, but where to? McLaren is out of bounds after his experiences of 2007, Mercedes looks like being Lewis Hamilton's turf for the medium-term and Red Bull are unlikely to want him unless they lose Vettel. Returning to Lotus, where he won his first two championships in the Renault days, would be an option, but questions must be asked of the Enstone outfit's financial muscle in relation to the big-hitters.
Hamilton is another driver whose talents are not accurately reflected by the number of titles to his name. His driving for the most part this season has been superb, and McLaren's unreliability undoubtedly cost Lewis a shot at the title. He failed to score on six occasions against three for Vettel and two for Alonso, none of which (with the possible exception of the Maldonado incident at Valencia) were his fault. His best performances came after his move to Mercedes was confirmed, as he became once again totally at ease with himself. The way Jenson Button was outperformed for the bulk of the year must have come as a shock to the 2009 champion after his blistering season last year.
I've already written extensively about Hamilton's move to Mercedes, but it is clear that the Brackley squad has a lot of work to do if the Brit is to be given a car worthy of his talents. The year started well for Nico Rosberg, and his maiden triumph at China was as deserved as it was overdue. However, as the team's competitiveness waned, in part due to the double DRS failing to pay dividends, Rosberg's performances appeared to do likewise. Michael Schumacher on the other hand appeared to extract more from the F1 W03 when it was a less-fancied contender, his qualifying performance at Monaco a timely reminder of his extraordinary talent. The seven-time champion will be sorely missed next year.
2012 reinforced my view, which is shared by many pundits, that Alonso, Vettel and Hamilton are the class of the field. Button threatened to break into that group with his performances last year, but his inability to work around set-up issues cost him dearly this year; he lacks the adaptability that made teammate Hamilton so consistently quick this season. Similarly, despite two strong victories at Monaco and Silverstone, Webber proved maddeningly inconsistent, whilst Massa's strong end to the season failed to quite make up for his abysmal early-season form. Raikkonen's comeback meanwhile went considerably better than the majority of onlookers had predicted, even if he understandably lacked that final edge after two years away. If Lotus produce another quick car, he could prove the dark horse for the championship next season.
Though 2012 was not a stellar season for Button, there is cause for optimism next year. No longer do McLaren have to compromise between the sharply opposing driving styles of Hamilton and Button, and the latter can prove near-unbeatable when he's totally in sync with the car beneath him. Sergio Perez, who joins the Woking squad next season, has a similarly smooth style to Button, which should allow the two to work together effectively when it comes to getting the best from the car. I have high hopes for Perez in 2013, despite his decidedly mediocre end to the season, and I think the Mexican will be disappointed if he hasn't won a couple of Grand Prix by this time next year.
In much the same way as Alonso, Raikkonen and Juan Pablo Montoya established themselves as the leading lights of the post-Schumacher era a decade ago, I see Perez, Nico Hulkenberg and Daniel Ricciardo forming the backbone of the generation that will be fighting for victories and championships five to ten years from now. Hulkenberg frankly obliterated teammate Paul Di Resta during the second half of this season; the Scot needs to re-assert himself next year to prevent his stock in the driver market dipping even further. Ricciardo meanwhile was one the most consistent performers of the season at the wheel of his often-reluctant Toro Rosso, and fully deserves a promotion to the Red Bull team proper if a vacancy emerges in 2014.
Pastor Maldonado and Romain Grosjean have the speed to be part of the above group if they can temper their aggression. As of the time of writing, Grosjean has yet to be confirmed for 2013 - I will be very disappointed if the Franco-Swiss is dropped in favour of a 'safer' pair of hands, as he has demonstrated enormous potential which will go unfulfilled if he loses his seat. Admittedly, he has had an unfortunate propensity to shunt into others, but that will diminish as time goes on if he is given the chance. On the subject of young French drivers, I'm glad that the impressive efforts of Charles Pic at Marussia didn't go unnoticed and that he has been snapped up by Caterham, while Jean-Eric Vergne also showed the occasional flash of brilliance even if he wasn't as impressive as Ricciardo across the season as a whole.
Two names linked to Grosjean's drive have been Kamui Kobayashi and Heikki Kovalainen, but if Grosjean remains at Lotus the pair will be among a lengthy list of names to vanish from the F1 grid next year. Kobayashi was a reliable points-gatherer for Sauber, but with the notable exception of at Suzuka, he couldn't realise the race-day potential of the Sauber in the same way Perez was able to. Kovalainen did little wrong at Caterham, but unfortunately his lack of funds may transpire to outweigh his experience and talent. Bruno Senna, whilst in contention for the second Caterham seat, has been solid but unspectacular this year, much as he was during the back end of 2011 for Renault. He's competent enough, but a surname does not a future champion make.
Senna has been testing Mercedes DTM cars recently, so expect to see him emerge there if the Caterham drive eludes him. As a former Toyota junior, the Japanese marque's World Endurance programme seems the logical place for Kobayashi to go, whilst Kovalainen has expressed an interest in trying his hand at rallying - he beat Sebastien Loeb to the Race of Champions title back in 2004, so why not? Vitaly Petrov has said relatively little about his plans if he's dropped by Caterham, although a testing role, perhaps with Pirelli, is an option. With HRT going down the pan, Pedro de la Rosa may also return to testing, whilst Narain Karthikeyan has been linked to a drive in IndyCar. Timo Glock must be breathing a sigh of relief that he's under contract to Marussia for another two seasons.
What of the influx of rookies lined up to take the places of the aforementioned? Valtteri Bottas' promotion to a Williams race seat hardly comes a surprise, given the degree to which he is admired within the Williams garage. The Finn should give Maldonado a harder time than Senna was able to, although it could take him a while to get up to speed having had a year out from racing. I have the feeling Sauber may come to regret giving a race seat to (the admittedly very talented) Esteban Gutierrez as soon as they have, who by his own admission is "not 100 percent ready." His GP2 campaign this year was punctuated by errors, a trend that will not be tolerated quite as readily in the brutally unforgiving F1 paddock.
Recent reports suggest that, as a result of a potential Ferrari engine deal, Force India may sign Jules Bianchi alongside Di Resta next season ahead of experienced campaigners Adrian Sutil and Jaime Alguersauri. Bianchi is a driver whose progress I have been following closely since his F3 days, and I have no doubt that he is ready to step up to the highest level and that he will give his Scottish teammate a thing or two to think about. Giedo van der Garde has also got the requisite experience under his belt to perform if Caterham elect to put him alongside the Dutchman's former GP2 teammate Pic, whilst a Max Chilton or Luis Razia would make an ideal replacement for Pic alongside Glock at Marussia.
It's been an unforgettable year of F1 action, and I have thoroughly enjoyed writing about it. Though there won't be any more posts on this site until March, you can still keep up to date with all the latest news by following me on Twitter at @KleinonF1. Having reached my target of 10,000 page views by the end of the year, I'd like to extend my thanks to everybody who has read this blog - rest assured I'll be back in the New Year to give you my two cents on everything that happens on and off the racetrack. Until then, from me, it's a very warm goodbye.
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