2013 Season Preview

Greetings! Welcome back to my blog, back for a fourth year of previews, reviews, reports, comment and opinion on all things Formula One. Check back regularly for new posts and ensure you keep up to date with all the F1 and motorsport-related news that matters by following @KleinonF1 on Twitter.

Since last year, a new 'Driver Stats' tab has been added to the site, allowing you to compare all the vital facts and figures about every driver on this year's grid at a glance. In addition, the 'Roll of Honour' has been updated to include numerous new historical statistics for your viewing pleasure.

While 2012 was one of the closest and most exciting seasons in recent memory, 2013 - the final year of the current 2.4 litre V8 engine formula - has the potential to be even closer. As ever, winter testing has thrown up a litany of questions that will remain unanswered until the cars hit the track at Melbourne in a week's time - can anybody stop the formidable Vettel-Newey axis from claiming a fourth straight title? Can Ferrari make amends for last year and produce a car worthy of Alonso's talent? Can Button seize the opportunity of being the undisputed McLaren number one? Can Lotus sustain the form needed to make Raikkonen a genuine championship contender? And how will Hamilton fare in the first year of his Mercedes adventure?

Despite the relative technical rule stability that promises to make this season a very closely-fought affair, there are one or two minor changes. Firstly, the ugly stepped noses that blighted the vast majority of last year's cars have been largely eradicated thanks to the introduction of an optional 'vanity panel', which allows teams to smooth out the step without affecting the aerodynamics significantly. Uptake has not been unanimous however, with the Lotus and Caterham machines retaining the distinctive 'platypus' look.

DRS is another area in which there have been changes. Active double DRS, that is to say additional wing-stalling triggered by the use of DRS, which was used to tremendous effect by Red Bull late last year, is now banned. Passive systems, which are triggered automatically when drivers reach a certain speed, have been trialed by Lotus and Mercedes during testing but it is unknown when, or indeed if, these will be seen in races. Additionally, DRS can no longer be used freely during practice and qualifying, and must be used only in the allocated zones as per the races. On the flipside, almost every track will now feature two DRS zones, with Monaco and Suzuka the only tracks to have just one.

With HRT now a mere footnote in F1 history after their predictable collapse during the winter, six cars instead of seven will be eliminated in Q1 - meaning that at least two, rather than one, midfield runner will be joining the Caterhams and Marussias in making up the back three rows of the grid - with a further six eliminated in Q2 to leave ten runners as ever to dispute the leading positions in Q3. With the Pirelli tyres softer this year than in 2012, saving fresh rubber for the race will be even more crucial, with a real possibility of some top runners deliberately failing to make Q3 in order to widen their race strategy options as a result.

This year's calendar sees a drop from 20 to 19 races, as a result of the unloved Valencia circuit having been axed temporarily before it makes its return in 2014 as part of a race-sharing deal with the Catalunya circuit. Following the failure of the New Jersey street circuit to be ready in time, which has now been postponed until next season, an extra space for a European round was added to the calendar, with France, Portugal, Austria and Turkey all mooted at various points during the off-season. With none seemingly willing to stump up the necessary cash to host a round of motorsport's most prestigious championship however, F1 fans will have to be content with a mere 19 races this year. Finally, the German Grand Prix will revert to the Nurburgring this year, as part of the track's deal to share hosting duties with Hockenheim.

With all of that out of the way, it's time to take a closer look at this year's runners and riders:

Infiniti Red Bull Racing
Drivers: Sebastian Vettel (D), Mark Webber (AU)
Reserve Driver: Sebastien Buemi (CH)

If this year's breed of F1 cars are largely evolutions of last year's designs, Red Bull has to be considered favourite for both championships once more in 2013. Despite the banning of the active double-DRS which was largely responsible for transforming last year's RB8 from merely being one of the best to the best car on the grid, the technical genius that is Adrian Newey will surely find a way around the new regulations sooner or later. A lack of headline lap times during winter testing has provoked accusations of 'sandbagging', with the team opting to focus almost exclusively on high fuel load running. It would therefore come as little surprise to see the Red Bull slightly ahead of the chasing pack at Melbourne, but it's possible that the team are already close to the car's maximum potential and thus may be caught by their rivals relatively quickly.

Sebastian Vettel confirmed his status as an F1 legend in the making last season with a third successive title victory, and it will be a herculean task for anybody to deny the German a fourth crown in 2013. The 25-year-old German is as focused and determined as ever, and will be eager to prove wrong those who still think the meteoric success he has enjoyed so far has been down to the car. Mark Webber proved on occasions last year that he can be a match for his teammate, but his poor second half of the year must beg the question of how secure the 36-year-old's Red Bull seat is. After all, he is now the oldest driver in the field following the departure of Michael Schumacher and Pedro de la Rosa, and Helmut Marko is known to be keen on promoting one of the Toro Rosso youngsters to drive alongside Vettel in 2014. Webber must show he can still be a thorn in his teammate's side if his F1 career is to last beyond November.

Scuderia Ferrari
Drivers: Fernando Alonso (E), Felipe Massa (BR)
Reserve Drivers: Pedro de la Rosa (E), Marc Gene (E)

Things could scarcely be more different for Ferrari heading into the 2013 season compared with a year ago. Whereas wind-tunnel correlations problems resulted in an off-the-pace car heading into the 2012 curtain-raiser, the F138 is looking a far more competitive, not to mention better looking, proposition than its predecessor, thanks in part to the team making use of Toyota's former F1 wind-tunnel in Cologne. Though pre-season testing suggested the new Ferrari possesses some impressive race pace, the team must show that it can keep up with Red Bull and McLaren in the development stakes - and not rely solely on superior reliability and making fewer mistakes - if the Scuderia is to take their first drivers title since 2007.

Fernando Alonso was, in the eyes of most, the best driver of 2012 given the quality of the machinery at his disposal. That he was able to come so close to the title in a car that was clearly inferior to its rivals is a real testament to his ability; the Spaniard has every chance of a third title if he can repeat that sort of form given that this year's Ferrari looks firmly in the hunt. Felipe Massa may have restored his reputation somewhat with some storming drives in the latter part of last season, but it goes without saying that he has to provide more effective back-up to Alonso's title ambitions if he is to hang on to his seat. A repeat of last year's sluggish start is unlikely to be tolerated, particularly if Alonso is narrowly pipped to the title once more.

Vodafone McLaren Mercedes
Drivers: Jenson Button (GB), Sergio Perez (MEX)
Reserve Drivers: Gary Paffett (GB), Oliver Turvey (GB)

While the majority of the top teams have taken a relatively conservative approach towards designing their 2013 machines, McLaren has made more wholesale changes with regards to their new MP4-28 - most notably the switch to pullrod suspension and an increase of the height of the chassis. This has meant that, while the new McLaren has turned in some eye-catching times during testing, it's long-run pace has been somewhat erratic. The team has admitted to be struggling to fully understand their creation, and the loss of technical director Paddy Lowe is hardly likely to help the situation. The Woking outfit is already downplaying expectations for Melbourne, and will have to get on top of its problems soon to keep up with the competition. That said, their more radical approach could pay dividends later in the season as other teams reach the limit of their cars' potential sooner.

If McLaren can get on top of the new car early on, Jenson Button cannot be discounted from the title hunt. With Lewis Hamilton out of the picture, the car should theoretically be suited to the 2009 champion's driving style better than last year - and we know how untouchable Button can be when he's totally in sync with the car. Certain races last season however, particularly Monaco and Canada, serve as a timely reminder of what can happen when the opposite is true. Sergio Perez meanwhile arrives at the team with pressure on his shoulders. With a similar driving style to Button, and perhaps slightly more in the way of raw speed, he should prove a match for his teammate as becomes more integrated within the team. The Mexican still needs to work on his consistency however, especially in qualifying, and avoid the kind of on-track incidents that blighted the end of his season last year.

Lotus F1 Team
Drivers: Kimi Raikkonen (FIN), Romain Grosjean (F)
Reserve Drivers: Davide Valsecchi (I), Jerome D'Ambrosio (B), Nicolas Prost (F)

It's easy to forget that Lotus, which is effectively the same team which took both Michael Schumacher and Fernando Alonso to the title on two occasions apiece, knows how to win championships. Kimi Raikkonen's  win for the team at Abu Dhabi was the Enstone outfit's first in four years, continuing a more-or-less upward trend since the 'crash-gate' scandal that shook the team to its core in 2009. So far, the all-new E21 has looked like a highly competitive package even if there have been some reliability issues during testing. Bearing that in mind, more race wins seem on the cards, while a title bid cannot be ruled out. The only question is whether Lotus can keep up with the Joneses as far as development is concerned later in the season, especially with fewer resources at their disposal than their main rivals.

So consistent and quick was Raikkonen last year that it almost seemed as if he'd never been away. The Finn clearly settled into life at Enstone very well indeed, the team understanding that allowing the 'Iceman' to be himself is the best way to ensure he delivers the results. Though he may still lack that final tenth of raw pace, there's little doubt Raikkonen can challenge for a second title if the car is up to task. As for Romain Grosjean, the speed he demonstrated last year, particularly during qualifying, was sufficient to make up for the numerous accidents in which the Franco-Swiss managed to get himself caught up. He still has the confidence of team boss Eric Boullier, but he needs to exercise slightly more caution when in battle for position on the track. If Grosjean can do that, it could well be that we hear La Marseillaise on the podium this year. If not, it could be a case of another promising talent regrettably being consigned to the F1 scrapheap.

Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team
Drivers: Nico Rosberg (D), Lewis Hamilton (GB)
Reserve Driver: TBA

The coup that was the signing of Lewis Hamilton in the autumn underlines how serious Mercedes are about succeeding in F1. The German manufacturer are clearly intent on ensuring their house is in order to take maximum advantage of next year's new engine regulations, with Niki Lauda and Toto Wolff joining the senior management and Paddy Lowe on the way from McLaren. Despite 2013 therefore appearing to be a year of transition at Brackley, the new W04 was quickest of all in the final test, meaning that Mercedes could prove to be in the mix for a podium finish at Melbourne if that level of performance can be replicated. Perhaps the biggest challenge for the team will be to avoid a performance drop-off similar to the one they experienced last year after a highly promising start to the campaign, particularly as the temptation to focus on 2014 increases.

Nico Rosberg's win for the team at China was undoubtedly the highlight in 2012, but the German's performances were lacklustre in the second half of the year compared to Michael Schumacher. How he responds to the challenge of having somebody as quick as Hamilton in the opposite side of the garage will be fascinating, as it could have a significant bearing on the remainder of his F1 career. Conversely, Hamilton will be able to enjoy having relatively little pressure on his shoulders. Wins certainly shouldn't be ruled out, particularly following the team's strong testing showing, as the Briton can surely be relied upon to squeeze every last tenth out of the car at his disposal. We can be fairly safe in the knowledge that if Lewis does suffer his first ever barren season, he won't be the person to blame.

Sauber F1 Team
Drivers: Nico Hulkenberg (D), Esteban Gutierrez (MEX)
Reserve Driver: Robin Frijns (NL)

With four podium finishes to their credit, last year was undoubtedly Sauber's finest as an independent constructor to date. The real challenge for the Swiss team will now be to maintain a similar performance level this year, particularly after the departure of technical director James Key. Both of the drivers of 2012, Sergio Perez and Kamui Kobayashi, are also no longer with the team, so it will be interesting to see how the aggressive new Sauber machine, designed by Matt Morris, goes in the hands of Nico Hulkenberg and Esteban Gutierrez. If this year's C32 is as competitive as its predecessor, it would come as little surprise to see Hulkenberg bag his maiden podium finish after some of his performances with Force India last year; the switch to Sauber makes the young German well positioned to take advantage of a potential vacancy at Ferrari for 2014. While Gutierrez's appointment ensures a healthy budget remains in place for the team, the Mexican shouldn't be underestimated. Matching Hulkenberg in year one is too large an ask, but Gutierrez needs to show flashes of potential whilst avoiding the mistakes that cost him a genuine shot at last year's GP2 title.

Sahara Force India F1 Team
Drivers: Paul Di Resta (GB), Adrian Sutil (D)
Reserve Driver: TBA

Vijay Mallya's team has a tough time ahead of it if they are to reclaim their 'best of the rest' status from 2011. Despite a strong showing towards the end of last season, particularly by Nico Hulkenberg, the team lacked the headline-grabbing results of their rivals at Sauber and Williams. The new VJM06 design also appears to be somewhat conservative compared to its rivals, as is their choice to re-instate former driver Adrian Sutil alongside Paul Di Resta this year. Whilst Sutil is a known quantity, and a very capable midfielder who can be relied upon to finish regularly, it's hard to see how his presence is going to drive the team forward. Di Resta meanwhile has to notch at least a couple of top-drawer results in order to regain the career momentum that he lost after being outclassed by Hulkenberg in the latter half of last year. The Scot seemed somewhat miffed about being overlooked for the McLaren drive, but he needs to re-capture the sparkle of his debut season if he is to put himself in the running for a move up the grid. Perhaps having Sutil back alongside him, who he was beginning to get on top off towards the end of '11, will give Di Resta the chance to do just that.

Williams F1 Team
Drivers: Pastor Maldonado (YV), Valtteri Bottas (FIN)
Reserve Driver: TBA

After the unmitigated disaster that was 2011, Williams proved last year that they can still be a force in modern day F1. Pastor Maldonado's superb victory at the Spanish Grand Prix was just the boost the team required, and the prospects of Sir Frank's squad challenging the big teams once more this year seem promising indeed. The new FW35 has proven at least as quick as, if not slightly more so in the long runs, its midfield rivals and its driver pairing has serious potential. For all of his on-track indiscretions last year, Maldonado's blistering speed should ensure further trips to the podium in 2013, which will be all the more crucial with the future of his Venezuelan state backing potentially in doubt after the death of Hugo Chavez. Valtteri Bottas meanwhile is one of the most exciting prospects to join the grid for some time, with his impressive showings in Friday practice last year enough to outweigh the solid but unspectacular Bruno Senna's cash in the eyes of the Williams team. While he hasn't raced since his title-winning GP3 campaign of 2011, the Finn isn't short of confidence and has the talent to establish himself as one to keep an eye on in the future.

Scuderia Toro Rosso
Drivers: Jean-Eric Vergne (F), Daniel Ricciardo (AU)
Reserve Driver: TBA

2012 was a year to forget for the team that took Sebastian Vettel to his maiden victory four years earlier, but the appointment of James Key as technical director last year promises to move Toro Rosso back into the thick of the midfield fight once more this year. The STR8 seems a more promising baseline than last year's car, which should allow Jean-Eric Vergne and Daniel Ricciardo to showcase their talents and score points far more regularly. Though Vergne finished 2012 with the slightly higher points tally of the pair, he was out-qualified far too often by his teammate and needs to extract the most from the car more often than he was able to last year. Ricciardo meanwhile needs to demonstrate the necessary aggression in battle to go with his obvious single-lap pace that would make him as the more likely candidate for a Red Bull drive. Should either man falter in the ultra-high pressure environment that is Toro Rosso however, the highly-rated Red Bull junior Antonio Felix da Costa is ready to step in - just ask Sebastien Buemi or Jaime Alguersauri what's likely to happen if Helmut Marko doesn't think you're up to scratch.

Caterham F1 Team
Drivers: Charles Pic (F), Giedo van der Garde (NL)
Reserve Drivers: Alexander Rossi (US), Ma Qing Hua (PRC)

Clinching tenth in last year's constructors' championship at the 59th minute of the 11th hour must have come as a relief for Tony Fernandes' team, but Caterham looks to have a fight on its hands if they are to evade the wooden spoon, let alone step up and challenge the established midfield pack. The CT03 has looked like a handful in testing, and it's hard to see how the new driver line-up of Charles Pic and Giedo van der Garde, who have just 20 starts between them, is going to be able to help develop it effectively. Pic turned heads in his rookie season last year, proving a match for his veteran Marussia teammate Timo Glock on occasion, but can be expected to do little more this season than consistently out-qualify newcomer van der Garde, who arrives largely on the virtue of funding, and finish as high up as the attrition rate allows. Points finishes seem as distant as ever unless there's a race this year as chaotic and unpredictable as last year's Brazil finale.

Marussia F1 Team
Drivers: Jules Bianchi (F), Max Chilton (GB)
Reserve Driver: TBA

Despite the somewhat controversial manner in which the team parted ways with Timo Glock in January, as well as the short-lived tenure of his initial replacement Luiz Razia, there is some cause for optimism in the Marussia garage this year. The new MR02, the first wind-tunnel assisted design produced by the team, seems to be a tidy package, and the arrival of KERS will undoubtedly put it in a better position to challenge their rivals at Caterham even if points remain out of reach. Jules Bianchi, who lost out on the Force India seat to Adrian Sutil and was only announced as a Marussia driver in place of the unfortunate Razia during the final pre-season test, brings valuable testing experience to the team and should thrive in having a low-pressure environment in which to build experience. Britain's Max Chilton meanwhile has benefited from having plenty of seat time in testing thanks to the uncertainty surrounding the identity of his teammate, but needs to prove he's not only in F1 only by way of his considerable financial backing and that he has the potential to move up the grid in the future.

Predictions
Whilst another Vettel-Alonso battle for supremacy is shaping up to be perhaps the most likely scenario as far as the title is concerned, predicting the precise order of the chasing pack with so many questions unanswered is something of a fool's errand. That said, my prediction for last year wasn't a million miles away from reality - only time will tell how accurate I'll be this time around. As there'll be no separate preview article for the Australian Grand Prix, I've also taken the liberty of including my predictions for the opening race below:

Drivers' Championship
1. Alonso, 2. Vettel, 3. Raikkonen, 4. Button, 5. Webber, 6. Perez, 7. Hamilton, 8. Massa, 9. Grosjean, 10. Rosberg, 11. Hulkenberg, 12. Maldonado, 13. Ricciardo, 14. Di Resta, 15. Sutil, 16. Bottas, 17. Vergne, 18. Sutil, 19. Bianchi, 20. Pic, 21. van der Garde, 22. Chilton

Constructors' Championship
1. Red Bull-Renault, 2. McLaren-Mercedes, 3. Ferrari, 4. Lotus-Renault, 5. Mercedes, 6. Sauber-Ferrari, 7. Williams-Renault, 8. Force India-Mercedes, 9. Toro Rosso-Ferrari, 10. Marussia-Cosworth, 11. Caterham-Renault

Australian Grand Prix - Qualifying
1. Vettel, 2. Grosjean, 3. Webber, 4. Button, 5. Hamilton, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Alonso, 8. Maldonado, 9. Perez, 10. Rosberg

Australian Grand Prix - Race
1. Vettel, 2. Raikkonen, 3. Alonso, 4. Grosjean, 5. Hamilton, 6. Perez, 7. Maldonado, 8. Rosberg, 9. Hulkenberg, 10. Ricciardo

That's all from me for now, but check back in a week's time for my comprehensive report on all the action from down under - it promises to be an utter corker.