27 June 2013

British Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

With the British Grand Prix at Silverstone just a few days away, it's time for me to re-calibrate myself from Le Mans mode and give my take on what will happen this weekend as Formula One returns to action at the historic Northamptonshire circuit.

Based on an airfield perimeter road, Silverstone was the scene of the first ever Grand Prix in 1950, and despite having shared British GP hosting duties with Aintree and Brands Hatch over the years, it ranks alongside Monaco, Monza and Spa as one of those circuits difficult to imagine absent from the F1 calendar.

The track layout itself has evolved throughout the years, with the ultra-high speed character of Silverstone having been gradually eroded through a series of modifications - most notably in 1991, when Becketts, Club and the final section of the lap were all given an overhaul, and in 2010, when the new infield section of circuit that links up with the Wellington Straight was added. 

In spite of such additions, Silverstone remains one of the fastest tracks on the calendar, and also one of the most aero-dependent. Additionally, after two relatively easy races on the tyres, managing the Pirellis is likely to be a challenge even with the relatively durable hard and medium compounds on offer. Bearing in mind slightly cooler temperatures and a degree of car development, somewhere between what we saw at Catalunya and Montreal is what we're likely to see in terms of degradation.

The other variable Silverstone is liable to throw up is the weather; despite plenty of wet practice and qualifying sessions recently, we're yet to see a wet race this year, something that could change this weekend. As for DRS, there will be a second zone along the Hangar Straight to join the existing one along the Wellington Straight this year - any hopes you may have had of somebody attempting a Mansell-style move into Stowe are hereby dashed.

Hot off the press this morning is the news that Mark Webber is leaving F1 at the end of the season to pursue a career in sports car racing with Porsche. This development should hardly come as a surprise to those who have been paying close attention to driver market news in recent months, although I have to admit I was shocked by just how early the announcement has been made.

It's a sensible decision by the Aussie. He had the option to move teams (Ferrari and Lotus being the most likely suitors), but some of the comments made by Webber - particularly with regards to tyres - sounded as if they were being made by someone no longer entirely enamoured by F1 as a whole. It was clear he was ready for a fresh challenge, and a combination of the new rules coming into force for next year and events at Malaysia earlier in the year made 2014 the perfect time to jump.

37-year-old Webber, who previously raced at Le Mans for Mercedes in 1998 and 1999, has potentially a whole decade to make his mark on endurance racing - after all, Audi driver Rinaldo Capello retired last year at the age of 48 with three Le Mans wins to his name. With the might of Porsche behind him, who would bet against Webber enjoying similar success? Even if he comes away with nothing, the sheer satisfaction of driving flat out around Le Mans - or indeed, just flat out full stop - will be sufficient to outweigh that.

Rumours that Kimi Raikkonen is on the verge of signing will inevitably intensify in the wake of the Webber's impending departure. Lotus are said to be in a difficult position financially, and thus may not be able to offer the 'Iceman' the kind of salary required to keep him at Enstone. Kimi himself will see it as a more reliable opportunity to gun for the title, whilst Red Bull will likely opt for the Finn's services over those of either Daniel Ricciardo or Jean-Eric Vergne in the interests of the constructors' title.

The other big story since the Canadian Grand Prix three weeks ago has been the verdict of the FIA International Tribunal on the Mercedes tyre-test saga. Essentially, the Brackley outfit's punishment amounted to being forced to miss the upcoming Young Driver Test - a lenient punishment which will hardly discourage other top teams from holding their own 1,000km tyre test if they see fit.

As for this weekend's race, Red Bull have to start as favourites. Not only have the team won three of the last four races at Silverstone, but it seems Vettel is really beginning to hit his stride. Tyre wear may temper the kind of pace we saw at Montreal for the German to a small extent, but it will take a monumental effort to prevent the reigning champion taking a fourth win of the season.

Fernando Alonso, winner at Silverstone two years ago, has to be the most likely man to stop Vettel. His pace at Canada was solid, if not quite enough to challenge his arch-rival for the victory, but the tyre wear advantage of the Ferrari could result in a more closely-fought contest between Alonso and Vettel. Raikkonen may also be in the ballpark on this basis, but Lotus are running out of time to prove that their E21 still has the pace to keep their man in title contention.

Mercedes appeared to have made some progress at Canada in terms of looking after their rubber, but Silverstone will be a far sterner test. Expect, as per usual, the Silver Arrows to go well in qualifying, but a home podium finish for Lewis Hamilton looks to be a tall order. Unless it rains, in which case anything is possible, beating Nico Rosberg in the sister car is likely to be the 2008 champion's primary goal for the race.

Jenson Button would be well-advised to moderate his ambitions ahead of his home race in light of McLaren's  recent struggles - some points would come as a welcome relief to a team that dismally failed to get either car inside the top ten at Montreal. Indeed, for Button, getting back on top of upstart teammate Sergio Perez - who is set to make his Tooned debut officially this weekend - on home turf must be a priority.

On the other hand, a good qualifying session could set up Paul Di Resta for a good result after two impressive recovery drives from poor grid slots at the last two races. A podium finish, whilst not especially likely, may not be as outlandish a prediction as it seems at first glance when you consider how kind the Force India is on its tyres. Such an outcome will nonetheless probably depend of some of the front-runners hitting trouble.

Qualifying Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Hamilton, 3. Rosberg, 4. Alonso, 5. Webber, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Massa, 8. Di Resta, 9. Grosjean, 10. Ricciardo

Race Prediction
1. Vettel, 2. Alonso, 3. Raikkonen, 4. Webber, 5. Di Resta, 6. Hamilton, 7. Grosjean, 8. Button, 9. Ricciardo, 10. Perez

Unfortunately, I can't see past a Vettel victory this weekend. The conservative tyre allocation will favour Red Bull, and if the German can seize pole, as I expect him to, I fear he will sprint into the distance just as he did at Canada. The only hope is if one of the Mercedes to hold him up in the opening stint as to allow Alonso or Raikkonen - who will complete the podium in my view - to remain in touch.

Webber will take a solid fourth at his final outing, in an F1 car at least, to Silverstone, with Di Resta first of the Brits across the line ahead of Hamilton, whose tyre woes will return to haunt him, and Grosjean. McLaren meanwhile will be over the moon to get both cars inside the points, with Button and Perez finish either side of Ricciardo, who will be out to reverse the recent trend of being beaten by teammate Vergne. Massa will be eager to re-assert himself after his error strewn races at Monaco and Canada - resulting in a collision with a fading Rosberg...

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