6 June 2013

Canadian Grand Prix 2013 - Preview

Formula One makes its first trip to the North American continent this weekend, as the teams and drivers arrive at the much loved Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in the Canadian city of Montreal for the seventh round of the championship.

Much like Melbourne, the Montreal circuit often provides one of the most entertaining and memorable races of the season. Perhaps this is because the layout of the track is fairly atypical of modern tracks, featuring long straights punctuated by slow and medium speed turns, and the close proximity of the walls - not least the infamous 'Wall of Champions' at the end of the lap - which lends Montreal the aura of a street circuit.

That in turn means that the Safety Car is a regular occurrence at the circuit, whilst inclement weather can further add to the unpredictability of the race - anybody who witnessed Jenson Button's 'last-to-first' victory of two years ago is unlikely to forget it anytime soon. Montreal has also seen a disproportionate number of first-time winners, with Thierry Boutsen (1989), Jean Alesi (1995), Lewis Hamilton (2007) and Robert Kubica (2008), as well as Gilles Villeneuve himself at the track's first F1 race back in 1978, among them.

Like last time out at Monaco, this weekend's tyre allocation consists of the super-soft and medium tyre, although the teams will also be able to test a modified rear tyre, which Pirelli are hoping to introduce in earnest from the next round at Silverstone onwards, during Friday practice. This year's race will see a return to the double DRS arrangement last seen in 2011 after a single zone was used last year; the zones are to be found along the back straight approaching the final chicane and the start/finish straight.

Mercedes are the team everybody is talking about at the moment, and, sadly for the Daimler executives, that's not only because of its first race win of the year at Monaco. On the morning of that particular Grand Prix, it emerged that the German team had conducted a 1,000km tyre test with Pirelli at Barcelona several days after the Spanish Grand Prix, supposedly with the blessing of the FIA but without the knowledge of the other teams.

The sporting regulations of course prohibit any kind of testing with a current-spec car outside of the agreed pre-season testing sessions, as well as filming events and straight-line aerodynamic work; Red Bull and Ferrari immediately launched a protest, believing the test to be a grossly unfair advantage. Mercedes pointed out that it is within Pirelli's contract to be able to request such a test with a particular current-spec car - the W04 being chosen as the car which places the most strain on its rear tyres.

The FIA's response to the matter was that the test would only have been permissible on the basis that Pirelli ran the car themselves and that every team was given an identical opportunity to participate. Clearly, neither of these conditions were met, and, whilst Nico Rosberg's Monaco victory stands, the matter has been referred to the International Tribunal with little indication given thus far of what punishment will be meted out to Mercedes.

Asking a tyre supplier to create deliberately defective products in the name of the 'show' is not compatible with the current testing restrictions - Pirelli were desperate to test with a current car to develop the tyres they have been asked to (after all, what use is a 2010-spec Renault for that purpose?) for the remainder of the year and beyond, assuming of course that the Italian firm do indeed stick around. They have hinted that a loosening of testing rules may even be a prerequisite of an extension to their contract.

It should come as no surprise that both Hankook and former suppliers Bridgestone have recently scotched suggestions they could enter the F1 foray anytime soon, given the immense pressure Pirelli are currently under from the teams, with all of their differing agendas, the fans and the FIA; I for one wouldn't blame Pirelli if they did decide to pull the plug on their F1 activities at the end of the year.

Back to the racing, and Mercedes are likely to be in contention once again at Canada. With four successive pole positions under the team's belt, their car's one-lap prowess is beyond doubt. However, whilst tyres will not be under the same strain at Montreal as they were at tracks such as Catalunya, overtaking will be a relatively straightforward exercise with the help of DRS, meaning Rosberg cannot count on controlling the race from pole position as he did at Monaco.

That said, assuming tyre degradation isn't overly severe, both Mercedes drivers will be aiming for a podium finish. Hamilton in particular is no stranger to success at Canada, having won an additional two times (2010 and 2012) since his maiden victory of six years ago, and will be keen to get back on top of Rosberg having been outperformed at the last two Grands Prix.

Canada is one of two current circuits, the other being Austin, where Red Bull have never won, the slow corners and long straights traditionally not suiting their machine. But, with tyre wear perhaps set to be less of a factor here than previous races, Sebastian Vettel certainly has the opportunity to right that. He did after all run strongly in both 2012 and 2011, leading much of the race until Button passed him at the eleventh hour to steal the win.

Romain Grosjean and Sergio Perez both finished on the podium here last year, but are both under pressure heading to Canada after their performances at Monaco. Grosjean didn't exactly endear himself to the Lotus team with his litany of shunts during the weekend, and his ten place grid penalty for his shunt with Daniel Ricciardo during the race will likely severely limit the impact he makes this weekend. A clean run is an absolute must, however, with Eric Boullier's patience with Grosjean reportedly starting to wear thin.

Perez drew the ire of several drivers at Monaco, most notably Kimi Raikkonen, who suggested the young Mexican ought to be 'punched in the face' after their collision. It was nothing if not a spirited performance from Perez however, and he should be applauded for having a go even if he pushed his luck one stage too far. Like Grosjean, a sensible, error-free weekend is what's required of Perez at Canada if he is to avoid providing further ammunition to his critics.

Raikkonen was irritated that Perez's misdemeanour cost him so much ground to Vettel in the points standings, but he has the opportunity to close that gap this weekend on Red Bull's 'bogey' circuit, particularly if he can get away with one less pit-stop than his rivals. After a sub-par race at Monaco, Fernando Alonso must also fancy his chances of closing in on Vettel and perhaps taking Ferrari's first win at Canada since 2004 having ran a strong second for much of the race last year.

Qualifying Prediction
1. Hamilton, 2. Vettel, 3. Rosberg, 4. Alonso, 5. Webber, 6. Raikkonen, 7. Massa, 8. Perez, 9. Button, 10. Di Resta

Race Prediction
1. Alonso, 2. Raikkonen, 3. Hamilton, 4. Rosberg, 5. Webber, 6. Massa, 7. Perez, 8. Di Resta, 9. Sutil, 10. Ricciardo

With the help of a good start and less tyre wear than the opposition, Alonso will come through from the second row of the grid to scoop his third win of the season, with Raikkonen making similar progress to take second. Despite slipping from pole with Mercedes lacking race pace in relation to Ferrari and Lotus, Hamilton will take the final podium spot, crucially re-taking the upper hand over Rosberg on a track that has been kind to the 2008 champion.

Webber will come home fifth in a steady and unspectacular run, just shading Massa and Perez, who will prove wrong his critics with a measured drive. Paul Di Resta and Adrian Sutil will make it a double points finish for Force India, with Daniel Ricciardo rounding out the points-finishers with tenth. No sign of Vettel though, who is seriously overdue some bad luck - perhaps the 'Wall of Champions' beckons...

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