F1 Stat Attack Part I: Most Wins

Over the past few weeks, I have been doing some trawling of the Formula One record books. In particular, I have looked at most wins, most starts, and most points, all of which I will be covering in a three-part series.

The all-time win list as it stands, as of the Monaco Grand Prix last weekend, makes for very interesting reading:

1. Michael Schumacher – 91 wins (1994-2006)

2. Alain Prost – 51 wins (1981-1993)

3. Ayrton Senna – 41 wins (1985-1993)

4. Fernando Alonso – 32 wins (2003-present)

5. Nigel Mansell – 31 wins (1985-1994)

6. Sebastian Vettel – 28 wins (2008-present)

7. Jackie Stewart – 27 wins (1965-1973)

8. Jim Clark – 25 wins (1962-1968)

9. Niki Lauda – 25 wins (1974-1985)

10. Juan Manuel Fangio – 23 wins (1950-1957)

Also knocking of the door of the top ten are Lewis Hamilton (21 wins), Kimi Raikkonen (20 wins) and Jenson Button (15 wins), with Felipe Massa (11 wins) and Mark Webber (9 wins) a little further down the order.

The most striking thing about the list is the sheer lead Schumacher holds over his closest opposition. It seems unlikely however that the German’s mighty total of 91 wins will ever be surpassed, given the unique advantages, other than his incredible talent, he possessed in his pomp.

These days, more or less perfect reliability for every team bar Caterham and Marussia is the norm, but the Schumacher-Todt-Brawn era Ferrari team were the first to achieve this in the early 2000s with the help of a virtually limitless budget and endless testing at Fiorano. Between 2002 and 2004, Schumacher retired just twice (Brazil 2003 and Monaco 2004), neither of which were caused by any mechanical issues.

It took the likes of McLaren, Williams and Renault a few seasons longer to get to this state, providing Schumacher with many more opportunities than his rivals to rack up the wins.  In addition, between 1994 and 2006, there were only two seasons when Schumacher lacked a ’top’ car (1996 and 2005); that's no coincidence when you consider his role in developing the machinery at his disposal.

Compare that to Damon Hill (22 wins), who had four seasons in a very competitive Williams before being shuffled away to Arrows in 1997, Mika Hakkinen (20 wins), who only enjoyed three seasons in a fully competitive McLaren (1998-2000), and Jacques Villeneuve (11 wins), who had just two seasons with Williams in which to squeeze an entire career’s worth of wins.

Moving on to the next generation of drivers against whom Schumacher fought, before this year, Raikkonen has had two seasons in a McLaren (2003 and 2005) and a further two with Ferrari (2007-08) to do most of his winning. Alonso meanwhile has so far had his two title-winning years with Renault, one with McLaren and two with Ferrari (2010 and 2012) in addition to 2013.

Alonso now sits fourth in the winners’ list with 32 wins, the highest of any active driver. Assuming the Spaniard remains with a competitive Ferrari team until his contract expires at the end of 2016, it’s not unrealistic to think he can surpass Senna’s total of 41 wins fairly easily, or perhaps trouble Prost’s tally of 51. There nonetheless simply aren’t enough years however, even with 19 or 20 races on the calendar, for Alonso to catch Schumacher.

Vettel is the second highest active driver on the list in sixth position, reaching such heady heights at just 25 years of age. By way of comparison, Schumacher was 28 when he broke into the top six in 1997, whilst Prost, Senna and Alonso were all 29.

Assuming Vettel remains in competitive machinery for the bulk of his career, it’s not hard to imagine him surpassing Senna and Prost. But, securing a 92^nd victory will be a far taller order – if we assume, for the sake of argument, Vettel remains in F1 for another dozen years, he has to win an average of 5.3 races per year in order to overhaul his compatriot.

Lewis Hamilton probably has another decade to run in his career (assuming he doesn’t defect to NASCAR to spend more time with girlfriend Nicole Scherzinger), and thus will need an average of two wins per year to beat Senna’s record, which seems entirely feasible, or three to overtake Prost, which is still doable if he is able to remain in a top car for the majority of that period.

As for Raikkonen, it seems the Finn is unlikely to remain in F1 for more than a couple more years, meaning passing Stewart for seventh in the list may be about as far as he goes. Button meanwhile needs another eight wins to level with Fangio and breach the top ten; if the Briton can achieve that in the remainder of his career, he can retire a very happy man indeed.

It comes as little surprise that the top six in the all-time winners list are dominated by drivers of the ‘Bernie’ era, i.e. since 16 or more races a year have been de rigeur. Though such a state of affairs will be short-lived, it is fitting that the remainder of the top ten are made up by, arguably, the greatest drivers of their respective eras.

Fangio took over as top dog at the start of 1955 from Alberto Ascari, and El Maestro’s record of 24 victories (in an era when there were as few as six to eight races per season) remained untouched until Clark notched up a 25^th in his last ever F1 start before his death in 1968.

Five years later, and another Scot took over at the top of the leaderboard in the form of Stewart. Lauda came close, drawing level with Clark, but it wouldn’t be until 1987 that Stewart’s record would be toppled as Prost took his 28^th win.

As the Frenchman retired from the sport at the end of 1993, it seemed probable that Senna would take the 11 extra victories necessary to surpass his great rival, but the tragic events of Imola ‘94 put paid to any such hopes. Had Senna survived, something about which I’ve written in the past, he may have reached 60 wins, and perhaps Schumacher’s record would only stand around the 80 mark instead of the present 91.

Schumacher’s success was the perfect storm of a number of factors, not least of which was the immense investment made by the manufacturers and the tobacco firms in the early 2000s. It’s hard to see such a state of affairs ever being replicated, meaning in turn that it will extremely difficult for any team achieving the kind of sustained dominance required to propel a driver beyond 91 wins. Even Red Bull appears to be faltering somewhat in this tyre-dominated 2013 season.

Seven titles may well be equalled, as may be 68 pole positions – after all, Vettel only needs a further 31 to break that record. But, of all Schumacher’s many records (unless, of course, the F1 calendar is dramatically expanded in the future), 91 career victories appears to be the most untouchable.